Steel Director’s Briefing – March 2026

European steel prices have been increasing in recent months, driven by a combination of reduced quotas, the introduction of CBAM to mainland Europe, and persistently high energy costs across the region. Until recently, UK prices themselves had not followed the increases seen elsewhere in Europe. European producers have continued to quote into the UK, but their offers have been significantly higher than those available from outside of Europe, and Tata in the UK, albeit, Tata UK are restricted in their offerings due to slab stocks. Consequently, EU Steel mills capacity has largely been allocated to European customers. Why would they sell capacity to a lower priced UK market when they can achieve higher prices in Europe?

However, earlier this week, it was been reported by Argus Media, that Tata Steel UK has increased its hot rolled coil prices by £125 per tonne and hot-dip galvanised prices by between £140 and £150 per tonne for the second quarter, bringing their prices more in line with what has been seen in Europe – and further increases are likely.

Buyers are now turning their attention to the UK’s ongoing quota review, with potential changes expected from April 1st. Analysts are anticipating a reduction in quotas of around 50%, following similar measures implemented in Europe. The expectation of tighter quotas is already influencing behaviour in the market, with some traders holding back from offering material in the short term in anticipation of price increases – should the measures come into force.

Quotas have already played a significant role in shaping supply chains over the past few years. For example, when Korean and Vietnamese HDG quotas were reduced last July, buyers turned to Turkey as an alternative source of supply. Turkish galvanised material subsequently exceeded the WTA threshold, prompting complaints from Tata Steel UK. As a result, there is now widespread expectation that a quota for Turkish hot-dip galvanised material may also be introduced. If that happens, the question becomes: where will buyers turn next in order to secure supply?

All of this, of course, does not factor in the impact of the military conflict in Iran. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has already begun to influence energy markets. Rising energy costs inevitably translate into higher steel production costs, and shipping freight rates have become more volatile. Routes from the Far East may be disrupted, with vessels potentially needing to divert around South Africa rather than using the Suez Canal, increasing both transit times and costs. It goes without saying that this has the potential to become a prolonged conflict with long-term implications for global trade and the steel industry.

Meanwhile, the longer-term structural changes within the European steel industry continue. Tata Steel UK’s transition towards electric arc furnace production is underway, while other producers such as ArcelorMittal are also exploring similar technology as part of the industry’s decarbonisation strategy. What continues to remain less clear is how these developments will affect the range of grades available in the UK market and how this will impact long-term supply chains.

At Cooper and Jackson, volumes have remained strong and the outlook for March and April is positive. Across the wider market, however, sentiment remains mixed as buyers weigh the combined impact of quotas, rising prices, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around future supply.