Steel Director’s Briefing – April 2026
1st April 2026
In last month’s briefing, we highlighted a number of factors likely to influence the steel market in the months ahead,…
As the year draws to a close, the steel industry is once again assessing the combined effect of subdued demand, shifting trade measures, and incoming regulatory changes. While the market remains soft, there is a growing consensus among mills and traders that steel prices will rise in the early part of 2026. Forecasts suggest increases in the region of £40–£50 per tonne over the next few months, before easing back later in the year. Much of this anticipated uplift is tied to expectations around quotas, the introduction of CBAM, and the resulting tightening of supply.
The introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in January 2026, will place upward pressure on European prices, with a knock-on effect for UK offers. The UK will not implement its own CBAM until January 2027, but the industry widely expects the differential to influence UK pricing much sooner. The question is not whether it will have an impact, but how significant that impact will be in the short and medium term, as we start to understand the impact on import costs.
UK import quotas remain a major point of concern. Following the disruption caused by the July quota changes, the prospect of further reductions in April or July next year is now being actively discussed. The EU has already reduced quotas by 50 percent, and many expect the UK to follow suit. The uncertainty is around timing and scale. At present, the UK is still dealing with material caught up in the July debacle, with Korean and Vietnamese hot dipped galvanised imports stuck in ports and unlikely to clear until April. As a result, storage and finance charges continue to build.
Last time the reductions came as a shock, but the industry is better prepared now. For example, Korean mills are effectively “off market”, as their trade board tracks export volumes in real time and halts shipments as soon as quota limits are likely to be reached. Vietnam has no such mechanism, which makes the arrival of their material more unpredictable, as exports continue right up to the point that material is customs cleared upon arrival in the UK. Quotas can then be fulfilled, without warning.
From a pricing perspective, Far Eastern producers remain competitive. Offers for cold reduced coil from the region are significantly below those from European mills. For example, recent pricing indications show Far Eastern Mills offering material that is up to £75 p/t lower than the equivalents, that are offered by European Mills. The trade-off, however, is lead time. Typical deliveries from the Far East would be expected in March or April, while European mills can offer earlier availability. That said, a number of European producers have been affected by production issues, including the fire at ThyssenKrupp Steel’s Bruckhausen hot strip mill in Duisburg, which halted production from 24 October, and a fire at ArcelorMittal’s Fos-sur-Mer works on 8 October which shut blast furnace No. 2 and the steelmaking shop. That plant, which produces coil including two-metre-wide material, is not expected to resume operations until mid-December. These disruptions have tightened supply in some product categories.
More broadly, the European steel sector continues to face structural difficulties. Major producers, including Tata Steel Europe, Thyssenkrupp, and ArcelorMittal, have all been under pressure financially. In the UK, Tata Steel is responding to weak demand by extending its usual Christmas shutdown from two weeks to five. At the same time, work has begun on the construction of the company’s new Electric Arc Furnace at Port Talbot, which is expected to be operational in 2028. There is also discussion about relocating the galvanising line currently based at Llanwern to Port Talbot as part of the company’s future configuration.
Conditions in the automotive sector remain difficult. Year-to-date UK automotive production has declined, affected not only by soft consumer demand but also by operational disruptions such as the recent cyber-attack at Jaguar Land Rover. The construction sector is similarly subdued, with sentiment hindered by economic uncertainty and a general reluctance to commit to new projects until after the Budget. The prevailing mood across both sectors has been one of waiting for clarity. We now have to wait and see what impact the budget has on market sentiment.
At Cooper and Jackson, activity during the final quarter has been stronger than anticipated. We have continued to support customers as they navigate the combined challenges of quotas, pricing, and extended lead times. Our focus remains on customer supply chains, strengthening resilience, and ensuring continuity in an environment shaped increasingly by policy decisions rather than demand alone.
We are also pleased to welcome a new sales apprentice to the business. Belle has made an excellent start, and we look forward to supporting her development as she grows into the role.
As we reach the end of what has been another complex and fast-moving year for the steel sector, we would like to thank all our customers, suppliers, and partners for their continued support. We wish you a very happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year, and we look forward to working with you in 2026.